The state of the global economy is finely balanced with the current situation in Europe and the state of the US economy. Although Australia’s economy seems to be stable, many businesses in the retail, manufacturing and tourism sectors are hurting. Could the trends of the recent past provide the insights for our future direction? Futurists have developed a range of techniques to study the future and predict general trends that can help individuals and businesses make the right decisions for their future. These insights also provide the power to design or create your desired future.
Following are a few techniques that futurists use to spot new opportunities and potential problems (extracted from World Future Society website www.wfs.org). These methods can give you and your organization an essential edge to help you succeed in a fast-changing world:
1. Systematically Scan the Media — Futurists often conduct ongoing and systematic surveys of news media and research institutes. These surveys help spot significant trends and technology breakthroughs. Futurists call this environmental scanning.
2. Analyze and Extrapolate Trends — After the trends are identified, the next step is to plot the trends to show their direction and development into the future. Trend analysis and extrapolation can show the nature, causes, speed, and potential impacts of trends.
3. Develop Scenarios — Futurists often describe the future development of a trend, a strategy, or a wild-card event in story form. These scenarios paint a vivid picture that can help you visualize possible future developments and show how you can prepare effectively for future risks and opportunities. Scenarios help you to blend what you know about the future with imagination about the uncertain. Scenarios help you move from dreaming to planning and then to accomplishment.
4. Ask Groups of Experts — Futurists also conduct “Delphi Polls,” which are carefully structured surveys of experts. Polling a wide range of experts in a given field can yield accurate forecasts and suggestions for action.
5. Use Computer Modeling — Futurists often use computer models to simulate the behavior of a complex system under a variety of conditions. For example, a model of the U.S. economy might show the effects of a 10 percent change in taxes.
6. Explore Possibilities with Simulations — Futurists create simulations of real-world situations by means of humans playing different roles. For example, in war games, generals test out tactics they may later use on the battlefield, or corporate executives can explore the possible results of competitive strategies.
7. Create the Vision — Futurists help organizations and individuals systematically develop visions of a desirable future. Visioning creates the big picture of the possibilities and prepares the way for goal setting and planning.
We need to be proactive, open our minds to study the current trends, and invest time to vision our desirable future.
Dr John Kapeleris